United Van Lines and U-Haul: NJ Continues to Lose People and Wealth to More Affordable States
January 9, 2024More Bullying of School Boards by Mendacious Michael “Hundreds of Millions” Gottesman and NJPEC — with the NJEA’s Help
January 19, 2024More data shows that NJ continues to have a serious outmigration problem, with 44,666 people leaving NJ for other states from 2022-23, or -0.5% of NJ’s population. NJ remains one of the bottom five states when it comes to domestic migration.
Earlier this week, we reported on the United Van Lines (UVL) and U-Haul 2023 surveys that showed NJ continuing to lose people and wealth to more affordable states. A new a study by Lewis Andrew in Spectator magazine provides the hard US Census data confirming those surveys. The five states with the largest net population loss to other states were:
- California -338,371
- New York -216,778
- Illinois -83,839
- New Jersey -44,666
- Massachusetts -39,149
Andrew finds an overall migration from “blue” states to “red” states due to three reasons:
- Taxes are “the most frequently cited reason;”
- Healthier job markets in red states. By and large, the “fastest-hiring” states were red and the “slowest-hiring” states were blue; and
- Housing affordability, with the median home price being substantially less in red states than in blue ones.
The Tax Foundation provided an analysis that quantified the US Census data as a percentage of population. Overall, the total US population grew 0.49%, led by SC (+1.6%), DE (+1.0%) and NC, TN, FL (+0.9%). Several states lost people to other states, including NY (-1.1%), CA (-0.9%), and IL (-0.7%). NJ was among the bottom ten states with a loss of -0.5%.
The Tax Foundation also aggregated the rankings for UVL, U-Haul and its own study. Taking the average ranking for all the studies (excluding Washington, DC), CA comes in last with an average ranking of 47.3, then IL at 47, NY at 46 and NJ at 45.7. By this metrics, NJ has the 4th-worst outmigration problem in the nation. You can’t sugarcoat that.
Looking at all three studies, the Tax Foundation concludes there’s “a very strong correlation between low-tax, low-cost states and population growth.” NJ is on the wrong side of that equation because it is the quintessential “blue” state: big government, powerful public-sector unions, high taxes and high cost of living. This blue-model political status quo is entrenched and has proved unchangeable. So people are voting with their feet. The numbers don’t lie.